Ingxabano eyandayo yaseRussia-Ukraine ichaphazele intengiso yehlabathi.Amazwe amaninzi asonyusa izohlwayo ngokuchasene neRussia kwicandelo lezemali kwaye izohlwayo zinokufikelela kwicandelo lamandla.Ngenxa yoko, amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada kunye negesi yendalo enyuka kutshanje.Ngomhla we-3 ka-Matshi, ikamva leoli ekrwada ye-Brent inyukela kwi-116 yeedola/bbl, iphezulu entsha ukusukela ngo-Sep 2013;kunye nekamva elikrwada le-WTI liqhubela phambili ukuya kwi- $113/bbl, ihlaziya ishumi leminyaka phezulu.Ixabiso lerhasi yendalo yaseYurophu linyuke nge-60% ngoMatshi 2, lifikelele kwirekhodi ephezulu.
Ukusukela ngo-2021, ixabiso lerhasi yendalo yaseYurophu linyuke kakhulu, linyuka ukusuka kwi-19.58 EUR/MWh ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kwi-180.68 EUR/MWh ukusukela nge-21 kaDec, 2021.
Ixabiso liqhutywe kukunqongophala kokubonelela.I-90% yokubonelela ngegesi yendalo eYurophu ixhomekeke ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe, kwaye iRashiya yeyona mvelaphi inkulu yokubonelela ngegesi yendalo eYurophu.Kwi-2020, i-EU ingenise malunga ne-152.65 yezigidigidi ze-m3 yegesi yendalo evela eRashiya, i-38% yezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle;kunye nerhasi yendalo evela eRashiya ibalelwa phantse i-30% yokusetyenziswa iyonke.
Ngokunyuka kongquzulwano lwaseRussia-Ukraine, iJamani kwiveki ephelileyo yanqumamisa ukuvunywa kombhobho werhasi yendalo iNord Stream 2.Umongameli wase-US uBiden ukwabhengeze izohlwayo ngokuchasene neprojekthi yombhobho weNord Stream 2.Ukongeza, umbhobho othile eUkraine wonakaliswa ukususela kwingxabano.Ngenxa yoko, ukuxhalabisa malunga nokunikezelwa kwegesi yendalo kuye kwanda, okukhokelela ekunyukeni ngokukhawuleza kwexabiso.
Izityalo zeMethanol ngaphandle kweTshayina zonke zisekwe kwigesi yendalo njengesondlo.Ukusukela ngo-Juni ka-2021, ezinye izityalo ze-methanol eJamani nase-Netherlands zibhengeze ukumisa imveliso njengoko ixabiso lendalo beliphezulu kakhulu eliphinde laphindaphindeka kaninzi ukusuka kwinqanaba lonyaka ophelileyo.
Izityalo zeMethanol eYurophu
| Umvelisi | Umthamo (kt/yr) | Ubume bokusebenza |
| I-Bioethanol (eNetherlands) | 1000 | Vala phakathi kuJuni 2021 |
| I-BioMCN (eNetherlands) | 780 | Ukubaleka ngokuzinzileyo |
| Statoil/Equinor (Norway) | 900 | Ukuqhuba ngokuzinzileyo, isicwangciso sokulondoloza ngoMeyi-Juni |
| I-BP (eJamani) | 285 | Vala ngasekupheleni kukaJan 2022 ngenxa yomba wobugcisa |
| UMider Helm (eJamani) | 660 | Ukubaleka ngokuzinzileyo |
| Iqokobhe (eJamani) | 400 | Ukubaleka ngokuzinzileyo |
| I-BASF (eJamani) | 330 | Vala ekuqaleni kukaJuni ka-2021 |
| Iyonke | 4355 |
Okwangoku, umthamo we-methanol ufikelela kwi-4.355 yezigidi zeetoni/ngonyaka eYurophu, kubalelwa kwi-2.7% yetotali yehlabathi.Imfuno yemethanol ifikelele malunga ne-9 yezigidi zeetoni eYurophu ngo-2021 kwaye ngaphezulu kwe-50% yobonelelo lwemethanol luxhomekeke ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.Imvelaphi ephambili enegalelo kwimethanol eYurophu yayinguMbindi Mpuma, uMntla Melika kunye neRashiya (ibalelwa kwi-18% ye-methanol yaseYurophu ephuma ngaphandle).
Imveliso yeMethanol eRashiya yafikelela kwi-3 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka, i-1.5 yezigidi zeetoni ezithunyelwa eYurophu.Ukuba unikezelo lwe-methanol oluvela eRashiya lunqunyanyisiwe, imarike yaseYurophu inokujongana nelahleko yokubonelela nge-120-130kt ngenyanga.Kwaye ukuba imveliso ye-methanol eRashiya iyaphazamiseka, ukunikezelwa kwe-methanol yehlabathi kuya kuchaphazeleka.
Kutshanje, ngezohlwayo ezibekiweyo, urhwebo lwe-methanol eYurophu luye lwasebenza ngexabiso le-FOB Rotterdam methanol linyuka kakhulu, linyuke nge-12% nge-2 kaMatshi.
Ngongquzulwano olungenakusombululeka kwixesha elifutshane, imarike yaseYurophu inokuba phantsi koxinzelelo lokunqongophala kwerhasi yendalo kwixesha eliphakathi nelide.Izityalo zeMethanol eYurophu zinokuchatshazelwa kukufikeleleka ngokunyuka kwexabiso lerhasi yendalo.Ixabiso le-FOB Rotterdam methanol kulindeleke ukuba liqhubeke nokunyuka, kwaye imithwalo eninzi inokuhamba isuka kuMbindi Mpuma kunye noMntla Melika ukuya eYurophu xa i-arbitrage isanda.Ngenxa yoko, imithwalo ye-methanol yemvelaphi engeyiyo yase-Iran ukuya e-China iya kuncipha.Ukongeza, nge-arbitrage evulekileyo, ukuthunyelwa kwakhona kwe-methanol e-China eYurophu kunokunyuka.Ubonelelo lweMethanol eTshayina kulindeleke ukuba lube lukhulu, kodwa imeko inokutshintsha.
Nangona kunjalo, ngokunyuka kwexabiso le-methanol, izityalo ezisezantsi ze-MTO zithwaxwa yilahleko enkulu eTshayina.Ke ngoko, imfuno yemethanol inokuchaphazeleka kwaye inzuzo yexabiso lemethanol inokuthintelwa.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-17-2022