Uninzi lweemveliso zibone ukwehla okunzulu kwinyanga ephelileyo.Kwimarike yexesha elizayo, i-amplitude ye-rebar, intsimbi ekrwada kunye nobhedu lwe-Shanghai kunye nemali eninzi yentlenga ngokulandelelanayo ibe yi-16%, i-26% kunye ne-15%.Ukongeza kwizinto ezisisiseko, ukunyuka kwenzala yeFed yeyona nto inefuthe elikhulu.
Ukuba ulandelelanisa umva kancinci kwitsheyini lelaphu, ukuhla komqhaphu kunye nezivumelwano ezinkulu zePSF ngokulandelelanayo ngama-25% (5,530yuan/mt) kunye ne-15% (1,374yuan/mt), ngelixa i-VSF iye yanyuka nge-1,090yuan/mt ngexesha. ixesha.Ngapha koko, nokuba ixabiso le-VSF okanye ukusasazeka komqhaphu, i-PSF kunye ne-VSF ngo-Mar 2021 yenze ngokufanayo, kodwa imvelaphi itshintshile.
Umahluko udweliswe ngolu hlobo lungezantsi:
1. Kukho iinguqu kubume bemeko enkulu, ukusuka ekukhutshweni kwemali yokuhlawula amatyala kwihlabathi kunyaka ophelileyo ukuya kuthi ga ngoku, kodwa amandla okuhlawula amatyala aseTshayina aseninzi.
2. Utshintsho kwisiseko somqhaphu kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo (ukuvalwa komqhaphu weXinjiang) kukhokelele ekwehleni kakhulu kwexabiso lomqhaphu waseTshayina.
3. Utshintsho kwiindleko zeVSF.Xa kuthelekiswa no-2021, ixabiso lokuvelisa liphantse libe yi-1,600yuan/mt ngaphezulu, kwaye ixabiso lempahla ekrwada (ipulp) liphantse libe yi-1,200yuan/mt ngaphezulu.Ngoko ke, inzuzo iye yancitshiswa ukusuka kwi-2,000yuan / mt kunyaka ophelileyo ukuya kwi-900yuan / mt kulo nyaka.
4. Utshintsho kwisantya sokusebenza, esiphantse sibe ngama-5 ekhulwini ngaphantsi kunonyaka ophelileyo.
5. Utshintsho kulindelo.Kulo nyaka uphelileyo, bekukho ithemba lokunyuka kwamaxabiso okuthe kwabakho ngenxa yokukhulula imali yokuhlawula amatyala kwakunye nokunyuka koqoqosho lwehlabathi, kodwa ngoku yinto elindelekileyo yokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi.
Ekuphela kwento efanayo kukuthengiswa kwangaphambili kweVSF.Ngo-2021, i-VSF yaqala ukuwa kakhulu emva kokuhamba emacaleni kwinqanaba eliphezulu malunga nenyanga enye enesiqingatha.Ngoku kuxhomekeke ukuba kukho umfutho onamandla wokuxhasa i-VSF kwinqanaba langoku okanye ukunyuka okuqhubekayo.Xa kujongwe kulo mahluko ukhankanywe ngasentla, inqaku lokuqala nelesihlanu ngokucacileyo alinanzuzo.Inqaku lesithathu kunye nesine (iindleko kunye nokubonelela) kunokuxhasa i-VSF, kodwa ngelixa unikezelo luyancipha, imfuno nayo iyancipha, ngoko ukubonelela akwanele ukuxhasa i-VSF.Okwesibini, ukuphunyezwa kokuvalwa kwekotoni ye-Xinjiang kunokukhokelela kubasebenzisi abasezantsi ukuba bafune ezinye iindlela ezifana nekotoni ethunyelwa ngaphandle okanye ezinye iifayibha.I-VSF lukhetho, kodwa isabelo kwimarike yaseTshayina sinokubanjwa yikotoni, ngoko ke kunzima ukutsho ukuba ingaba yi-bullish okanye i-bearish factor.
Ukuqukumbela, xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo, imeko-bume enkulu izise izinto ezingathandekiyo kwi-VSF.Okwangoku, iindleko kunye nomthamo wokuthengiswa kwangaphambili zizinto ezinamandla ezixhasa ixabiso le-VSF, ngoko kufuneka sinikele ingqalelo kwiinguqu kule miba mibini.Ngokufana nonyaka odlulileyo, ukuguqulwa kweefayili ezahlukeneyo kwisicelo esisezantsi kuyaphawuleka xa ukusebenza kweendleko ze-VSF kuncitshiswe kakhulu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-25-2022