Ngaba imarike yeekhonteyina zaselwandle ijongene nengxaki entsha yokubonelela?

Amanye amajelo eendaba achaza ukuba ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine ithintele kakhulu ukuthunyelwa kwenqanawa yoLwandle oluMnyama kwaye yenza impembelelo enkulu kuthutho lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye nokubonelela ngehlabathi jikelele.Kuqikelelwa ukuba amakhulu eenqanawa zisavaleleke elwandle ngenxa yolu ngquzulwano.Ungquzulwano lwalubaxa uxinzelelo lokusebenza kwishishini lokuthumela ngenqanawa kwihlabathi liphela, malunga nama-60,000 oomatiloshe baseRussia nabaseUkraine abavaleleke kumazibuko naselwandle ngenxa yongquzulwano.Abangaphakathi bathi amalungu abasebenzi baseUkraine bagxile kakhulu kwiinqanawa zeoyile kunye neenqanawa zekhemikhali, ikakhulu zisebenzela abanini beenqanawa zaseYurophu, kwaye zibambe izikhundla ezikumgangatho ophezulu njengomphathi kunye nomkomishinala, ngokuthatha indawo ephantsi, nto leyo eyenza ukuba kube nzima kakhulu kubanini beenqanawa ukuba bafumane ezinye ezitshintshileyo. .

 

Abantu kwishishini bachaza ukuba abasebenzi abavela eUkraine naseRussia babalelwa kwi-17% yabasebenzi behlabathi abazizigidi ezisisi-1.9,kwaye ngoku kukho ubuncinane 60, 000 oomatiloshe baseRashiya nabaseUkraine abavaleleke elwandle okanye kumazibuko, nto leyo ngokungathandabuzekiyo yayiluxinzelelo olukhulu kwimarike yokuthumela ngenqanawa.

 

Abanye abadlali bentengiso yasekhaya eTshayina baphinde bahlalutya ukuba abona basebenzi baphambili baseMaersk kunye neHapag Lloyd uninzi lwabo luvela eRussia naseUkraine, ngelixa inkonzo enyanzelekileyo kunye nabasebenzi abagciniweyo eUkraine baya kuqeshwa kwaye abanakukwazi ukungena kwimarike yokuthumela ngexesha elifutshane.Ngaba abasebenzi abafutshane baya kuyinyusa imithwalo elwandle?Izikhundla zabasebenzi baseUkraine nabaseRashiya kunzima ukutshintshwa.Abanye abadlali bezentengiso bade bacinga ukuba impembelelo iyafana nokubetha kwe-COVID-19 kumzi-mveliso weenqanawa, kuba uninzi lwabaselwandle baseUkraine nabaseRussia banezikhundla eziphezulu njengokapteni, umkomishinala, injineli eyintloko, njalo njalo, eya kuba yinto enkulu. inkxalabo yabasebenzi.Abanye abantu abangaphakathi bagxininise ukuba ubhubhane kunye nokuxinana kwezibuko phantsi kwendlela yase-US, kuye kwacinezela umthamo wezothutho zaselwandle. Ukunqongophala kwabasebenzi ngenxa yemfazwe phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine inokuba yenye inguqu engaphandle kolawulo.

 

Ezinye iiodolo ziye zarhoxiswa.Umthwalo osuka eAsia usiya eYurophu nase-US wabuya umva.Ngaba imakethi yaselwandle “iza kuqalisa kwakhona njengesiqhelo”?

Ezinye iingcali zibonise ukuba imithwalo evela e-Asia ukuya eYurophu / e-US ibonise iimpawu zokunciphisa kungekudala.Ungquzulwano lwaseRashiya ne-Ukraine lwanciphisa unikezelo lwemathiriyeli ekrwada kwaye lwanciphisa imfuno.Imarike yaselwandle inokuphinda iqalise isiqhelo kwangaphambili.

 

Ngokweengxelo zeendaba zokuthumela ngenqanawa kwamanye amazwe, ii-odolo zexabiso eliphantsi kunye neempahla ze-cube ephezulu e-Asia ziye zacinywa.Ukusukela oko kwaqhambuka lo bhubhani, iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa zonyuka ngamaxesha angama-8-10, kwaye kwakungasenanzuzo ukuthengisa ezo mpahla.I-horticulturist eLondon ibonise ukuba inkampani ayikwazanga ukudlulisa uxinzelelo lwe-30% yokunyuka kwexabiso kwiimpahla zaseTshayina kwaye yagqiba ekubeni irhoxise imiyalelo.

 

 

Indlela yaseYurophu

Umthwalo osuka e-Asiya usiya eMntla Yurophu uqalise ukwehla, nto leyo ethe yahlala iphezulu ngexesha leholide yoNyaka oMtsha kodwa iye yathamba kutshanje.Ngokutsho kweFreightos Baltic Index, imithwalo ye-40GP (FEU) yehla nge-4.5% ukuya kwi-$ 13585 kwiveki ephelileyo.Ukusasazeka kobhubhane kwahlala kunzima eYurophu, kwaye usulelo olutsha lwemihla ngemihla lwahlala luphezulu.Xa kudityaniswa nomngcipheko we-geopolitical, ukuphucuka koqoqosho kwixesha elizayo kunokuba nembonakalo elusizi.Iimfuno zemihla ngemihla kunye nezixhobo zonyango zigcinwe phezulu.Umndilili wokusetyenziswa kwezihlalo ukusuka kwizibuko laseShanghai ukuya kumazibuko aseYurophu wawusekufutshane ne-100%, kwakunjalo kwindlela yeMeditera.

Indlela yaseMntla Melika

Usulelo olutsha lwemihla ngemihla lwe-COVID-19 bhubhane lugcinwe luphezulu e-US.Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwahlala kuphezulu e-US xa amaxabiso ezinto zorhwebo esanda kunyuka.Ukuchacha kwezoqoqosho kwixesha elizayo kusenokuba kukunqongophala kwemigaqo-nkqubo.Imfuno yezothutho iqhube kakuhle, kunye nobonelelo oluzinzileyo kunye nenqanaba lemfuno.Umyinge wokusetyenziswa kwezihlalo kwiNkonzo ye-W/C yaseMelika kunye neNkonzo ye-E/C yaseMelika yayisekufutshane ne-100% kwizibuko laseShanghai.

 

Imithwalo yezinye iibhokisi isuka eAsia isiya kuMntla Merika nayo yasinga emazantsi.Ngokutsho kwedatha evela kwi-S & P Platts, imithwalo evela eNyakatho ye-Asia ukuya kwi-US East Coast yayiyi-$ 11,000 / FEU kunye ne-Northern Asia ukuya kuNxweme oluseNtshona e-United States yayiyi-9,300 / FEU.Abanye abadluliseli basanikezela ngeedola ezili-15,000/FEU phantsi kwendlela yaseNtshona Melika, kodwa ii-odolo zehlile.Ukubhukishwa kwezinye iinqanawa zokuhamba zaseTshayina kwarhoxiswa kwaye indawo yokuthumela inyuke kakhulu.

 

Nangona kunjalo, ngokusekwe kwi-Freightos Baltic Index, ukunyuka kwempahla esuka e-Asia ukuya kuMntla Melika kwaqhubeka.Ngokomzekelo, ngokutsho kwe-FBX, imithwalo esuka e-Asiya isiya kuNxweme oluseNtshona lwaseMelika, yonke i-container engama-40ft, inyuke nge-4% ngenyanga ukuya kwi-16,353 yeedola kwiveki ephelileyo, kwaye leyo yase-US East Coast inyuke nge-8% ngo-Mar, oko kukuthi imithwalo yonke 40ft isikhongozeli kwi $18,432.

 

Ngaba ukuxinana kweNtshona Merika kwaphucuka?Kuse early kakhulu ukuba ndingatsho.

Ukuxinana kwamazibuko eNtshona Melika kwabonisa imiqondiso yokuthomalalisa.Inani leenqanawe ezilinde ukumisa lehlile ngesiqingatha ukusuka kumphakamo kaJanuwari kwaye nokuphathwa kwezikhongozeli nako kuye kwakhawuleza.Nangona kunjalo, abangaphakathi balumkise ukuba inokuba yinto nje yexeshana.

 

U-Alan McCorkle, iYusen Terminal Chief Executive, kunye nabanye bathi mva nje, iitheminali zeekhonteyina zihanjiswe ngokukhawuleza nangokukhawuleza ukuya kwiindawo ezinqatyisiweyo zangaphakathi, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuvalwa kwefektri kunye nokungenisa kancinci eAsia ngexesha loNyaka oMtsha weLunar.Ukongeza, ukuncitshiswa okubonakalayo kwenani labasebenzi abangekho kwizibuko abasuleleke ngubhubhane kuncede ukukhawulezisa ulungiselelo.

 

Ukuxinana kwamazibuko akuMazantsi eCalifornia kuphuculwe kakhulu.Inani leenqanawa ezilinde ukumisa lehle ukusuka kwi-109 ngoJanuwari ukuya kuma-48 nge-6 kaMatshi, elona liphantsi ukusukela ngoSeptemba kulo nyaka uphelileyo.Ngaphambi kokuqhambuka kobhubhani, zimbalwa kakhulu iinqanawa ezazinokulinda ukumisa.Kwangaxeshanye, umthamo wokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe wehlile e-US.Umthwalo ongenayo osuka kumazibuko eLos Angeles kunye neLong Beach wehla ukuya kutsho kwiinyanga ezili-18 ezisezantsi ngoDisemba ka-2021 kwaye wonyuke nge-1.8% kuphela ngoJanuwari 2022. Ixesha lokulinda lesikhongozeli liphinde lehla ukusuka kwixesha layo lonke eliphezulu.

 

Nangona kunjalo, imeko yexesha elizayo inokuhlala ibuhlungu njengoko umthamo wokuthumela unokuqhubeka ukhula kwiinyanga ezilandelayo.Ngokwe-Sea-Intelligence, i-avareji yeveki yokungenisa umthamo we-American West iya kuba yi-20% ephezulu kunexesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo kwiinyanga ezi-3 ezilandelayo.U-Alan Murphy, uMlawuli oyiNtloko we-Sea-Intelligence, uthe ngo-Apr, inani leenqanawa ezixinaniswe kumazibuko kunokwenzeka ukuba zibuyele kwi-100-105.